數據向好,金價反彈有限,但美聯儲面臨重大抉擇
關鍵字:美聯儲面臨抉擇
11月28日,雖然因為國際貿易局勢進程複雜化,讓國際金價有所走強,但美國經濟數據表現良好,美元指數也不斷回升,提振市場情緒,金價的反彈有限。但減稅措施效果減弱,美國經濟必須面臨貿易衝突,讓美聯儲開始擔憂。
在中國商務部週四舉行的例行新聞發佈會上,有記者提及“第一階段協議”、“關稅”、“農產品採購”等事宜,但發言人高峰並未提供新的資訊。
但美元跌勢受限,因上日公佈的多項美國經濟數據表現積極,提振市場人氣。美國第三季度經濟增長數據上修,而不是像初值數據顯示的那樣放緩。
數據的上升似乎證實了美聯儲主席鮑威爾本周稍早奠定的樂觀論調。他週一表示,“在長期擴張的過程中,我認為現在玻璃杯已經比半滿要多了不少。”
美國消費者支出在第三季增長2.9%之後,增速有所放緩。但強勁的勞動力市場應該會繼續支撐目前似乎有放緩跡象的消費支出。美聯儲中表示,多數地區報告消費者支出穩定至適度增長。
但製造業情況較為複雜,一些地區的就業崗位有所增加,而另一些地區的就業情況保持穩定。一個地區報告裁員。
美聯儲今年已三次降息,以保護經濟免受貿易爭端、全球增長放緩和企業投資下滑的影響。但經濟學家並不認為今年的增長能達到特朗普政府設定的3.0%目標。今年上半年GDP環比年率為增長2.6%。
美聯儲較為關注的通脹指標,即扣除食品和能源的核心個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數同比漲幅一直低於美聯儲設定的2%目標。
總體而言,美國經濟不得不逾越特朗普總統發起的貿易衝突這條減速帶,以及共和黨去年減稅舉措刺激效果減弱帶來的影響。而物價上行乏力始終是美聯儲的心腹大患,也避險買盤賴以仰仗的靠山。
本文來源: 大田環球貴金屬
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