追高黃金需謹慎，全球央行有大動作
在上周跌至19個月新低之後，現貨黃金價格抄底反彈，本周稍後中國代表團將趕往美國重啟談判。週五將召開全球央行年會，預計美聯儲將釋放鷹派信號，為9月加息再度曝露，因此金價仍受打壓，但在金價未突破千二關口前，不宜追高黃金。
上周金價下跌2.2%，為連續第六周周線下跌，且創下去年12月以來的最大周線跌幅。較4月高點而言，黃金價格已下跌逾13%，因美國利率上升及美元匯價上漲。
本周稍後，中國代表團將赴美重啟貿易談判，而初步透露的消息顯示，美方可能會施壓要求人民幣匯率適當回升。而美國總統特朗普此前也一再透露了不希望美元匯率過高的信號，這使得投資者開始押注美元已經“高處不勝寒”。
但即使如此，金價的上漲空間也有限，因為過去數個月的行情格局便是，當美元指數上漲時，黃金價格跳水大跌，而當美元指數回調之際，金價卻往往不漲或者僅有小漲。
為期三天的傑克遜霍爾央行年會將在週五(8月24日)開始召開，考慮到全球央行年度會議在即，美聯儲仍將釋放鷹派預期為9月份再度加息鋪路，因此金價基本面仍將承壓，當前的漲勢仍屬超跌反彈，在金價未能收復千二關口前，投資者不宜貿然追高。
黃金近期在土耳其貨幣危機和貿易爭端中失去了避險魅力，因投資者更青睞美元。
全球最大黃金上市交易基金(ETF)——PDR Gold Trust指出，上周五其黃金持倉量下降0.15%至772.24噸，週四為773.41噸。
印度實貨黃金需求上周升溫，因珠寶商在金價跌至七個多月低位後囤貨，此外金價下跌吸引新買盤並也推高亞洲其他主要交易中心的溢價。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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