貿易戰升級難以提振金價
美聯儲8月利率決議前美元走強，金價承壓下行。雖然中美貿易摩擦再度升級，但仍難提振金價。原因是美國經濟走高以及美聯儲強化緊縮都在推動美元，打壓美元計價的黃金。即使稍後的美聯儲8月決議消息偏向悲觀，但金價也難以馬上扭轉頹勢。
雖然美國總統特朗普四處煽風點火掀起貿易摩擦的做法，令投資者很對全球經濟的前景擔憂，同時中東地緣局勢也依舊硝煙不斷，但這些以往能夠輕易誘發避險買需推動金價上漲的風險消息事件，今年卻突然都失去了魔力。
分析師對此解釋稱，今年以來美國經濟向好，美聯儲強化政策緊縮預期的狀況，才決定了市場基本走向，利率上行預期推動美元指數走強，從而打壓了以美元計價的黃金價格。
而鑒於這一趨勢在下半年不會有根本改觀，美聯儲或仍將再加息兩次，因此分析師表示，黃金的漫漫熊途尚遠未結束，今年剩餘時間將維持陰跌走勢不變。
美元兌人民幣以及其他具有成長題材的貨幣上漲，且中美貿易摩擦進展局勢的升級令人加劇市場憂慮，打壓亞洲股市。
美聯儲8月利率決議料將維持利率不變，但經濟增長強勁加上通脹上升，可能讓美聯儲按計畫在年底前再加息兩次，儘管特朗普加大了對加息舉措的批評。
業內分析師指出，本周美聯儲將發佈貨幣政策決議，此後美國7月非農就業數據出爐。消息若偏向積極，顯示美國經濟繼續強勢，或拉動美元跳漲進一步令金價承壓，但即使情況相反，現貨黃金價格的走勢趨勢也難以立刻扭轉，頂多只能出現“死貓跳”式短線反彈。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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