美聯儲放鴿救贖金價？恐怕是一廂情願
金價在再次刷新了兩個交易日地點後，主流預期為美聯儲離場偏鷹且非農向好，將加劇金價跌勢。儘管美聯儲措辭騙鴿，或者是非農數據不及預期，導致金價有所反彈，但是效果也只是暫時的，反而意味著是做空的好時機。
過去一周金價持續盤整，在本周美聯儲決議和美國7月非農就業報告出爐前，市場情緒更趨謹慎。澳新銀行分析師Daniel Hynes認為，目前投資者沒有明確交投方向，特別是在美聯儲方面傳出更清晰的資訊之前，都會是這種情況。
美聯儲即將開啟為期兩天的貨幣政策會議，市場廣泛預期且維持貨幣政策不變，但投資者將密切關注美聯儲措辭，尋找未來加息步伐的線索。美聯儲今年已加息兩次，並暗示年底前還會有兩次加息。
當前任何的消息面事件都很難逆轉金價的下行趨勢。從技術上來看，本輪跌勢的目標價位將在1180美元/盎司一線，而眼下，任何短線的反彈都不意味著趨勢的扭轉，反而是逢高做空的良機。
大宗商品及能源技術分析師認為，現貨金傾向於跌至1206美元/盎司-1214美元/盎司區間。
由於期權到期，大約1200份新空頭合約被加入到未平倉合約中，交易員仍未將黃金視為避風港，而9月美元指數期貨最近維持在94關口上方，這些都使得黃金目前處於守勢。
大量看跌期權在1200美元/盎司的關鍵水準下，如果我們繼續持穩在這一領域，可能會帶來新買家以及空頭回補，金價有可能反彈。
日本央行週二承諾目前將維持利率在“非常低的”水準，並採取措施使其大規模刺激計畫更具靈活性。與此同時，英國央行料在週四(8月2日)宣佈加息25個基點。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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