做多黃金不可取？現在時機已到
大田環球貴金屬認為，雖然近期黃金表現不佳，但是也帶來了買入的良機。黃金空頭觸及歷史新高，金價可能在1200附近築底。若下半年美元漲勢逆轉，金價將獲得支撐，空頭行情上演回補。
黃金今年的表現的確很糟糕，過去三個月下跌近8%，較2018年高點下跌11%，因美元兌全球其他主要貨幣走強，對美元計價資產造成打壓。
不過，黃金這一輪暴跌或許已經給投資者帶來一次難得的買入機會。交易方面的數據是看多黃金的主要原因。這些數據詳細列出了每週期貨市場和期權對黃金的感興趣程度。
正如預期的那樣，市場的目光一直在追隨著黃金的下跌走勢。現在糟糕的市場情緒讓分析師懷疑，如果所有人都賣出了黃金，還有誰願意接盤呢？(言下之意，沒有對手盤市場無法運作；市場沒有分歧，主力控盤方也要製造分歧)
雖然分析師看多未來金價走勢，但市場的看法呈現巨大分歧。華爾街機構投資者中有41%看多金價，35%看空金價，另有24%表示不置可否。而散戶交易者中，41%看多金價，42%看空金價，另有17%表示不確定。
投資者表示，一方面，貿易摩擦導致新興市場國家選擇拋售黃金保外儲，美元高位運行仍將利空黃金；但另一方面，美國總統特朗普喊話試圖打壓美元漲勢，卻支撐金價走勢。同時，在夏季結束之後，來自中國和印度的實物黃金買需可能會重新提振實物買需，或有望令金價擺脫頹勢。
截止7月24日當周，對沖基金和基金經理增持紐約商品期貨交易所(COMEX)期金淨空倉至紀錄高位，因美元指數堅挺且美元兌人民幣大幅走強。若今年下半年美元漲勢逆轉，則金價將獲得支撐，黃金空頭將上演回補行情。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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