王垣鑫：金价震荡格局难掩疲态，非农或是方向助力推手
导语：今日晚间美盘将公布一月一度的非农数据。5月份金价正处于大级别的震荡回落过程当中，虽然在非农数据公布之后现货黄金价格短时间内剧烈震荡，不过后市未能有效站稳随即重新回归原本的震荡下跌走势当中。虽然在5月份中旬金价暂时止住跌势并出现一定幅度的反弹，但到近期反弹走势明显放缓，如果缺乏进一步上升动力的话，后市行情或将重新回归弱势。
大田环球贵金属提示：2022年6月公布的为2021年5月非农数据。
- 市场基本面
美联储公布利率决议加息50个基点。
美联储6月加息50个基点的概率为96.1%。
- 数据分析
美国劳工部5月6日公布的数据显示，美国4月失业率维持在3.6%的水平，非农部门新增就业人数仅为42.8万，较市场普遍预期的38万数据要多。本次市场预计失业率将小幅走低至3.5%，非农部门新增就业增加人数将大幅缩减至32.5万。
- 技术面走势
近段时间金价已经完成了自2070一线高位回落至起涨点1790一线位置下方的走势，虽然随后价格止住跌势后出现了一定幅度的反弹，但整体弱势格局并未出现任何的转变。目前周线MACD指标仍在死叉过程当中，而且价格仍未能摆脱MA5均线的压力效果，暗示后市走势随时有可能会继续延续此前的高位回落走势，因此后市看多仍为时尚早。
- 后市行情参考
从周线级别的情况来看，目前金价仍在MA5均线压力附近进行争夺。如果在本周非农数据公布后，价格能够成功突破MA5均线带来的压力并有效站稳的话，后市或将或迎来一轮冲击1900整数大关的过程；但如果非农数据公布后金价失守1840一线关键支撑位置的话，那么后市价格或将往回测试1790-1800区间的支撑效果，不排除会出现更进一步回落的情况。
（建议仅供参考，入市有风险，投资需谨慎）
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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