王垣鑫：美国制造业复苏，黄金价格两度冲高失败
昨日现货黄金多头自2172一线位置开始发力，在三个小时内金价直接拉升至2200位置附近，不过未能在高位站稳，随后持续回落。尽管下方2172一线起涨位置的支撑效果较为明显，但截至目前为止并未能支撑价格再度向上破位，整体交投于2180下方区间。
美国2月制造业出现初步复苏迹象
美国2月耐用品订单增幅超预期，而企业设备支出也显示出初步复苏的迹象，第一季度经济增长前景依然乐观。但11月总统大选临近，现任总统拜登与共和党挑战者特朗普将再次展开对决。世企研周二的一项调查显示，美国人对政治环境的担忧与日俱增，而对未来12个月经济衰退的担忧则有所缓解。耐用品订单反弹，部分逆转了1月的大幅下跌，并表明制造业可能正在重新站稳脚跟，此前制造业在美联储大幅加息后陷入困境。
美国统计局称，2月耐用品订单增长环比1.4%。1月数据被下修至下降6.9%，前值为下降6.2%。接受路透调查的经济学家此前预计耐用品订单增长1.1%。耐用品是指从烤面包机到飞机等可使用三年或更长时间的物品。2月耐用品订单同比增长1.8%。运输订单在1月大幅下降18.3%之后，2月攀升3.3%。民用产品订单在1月骤降63.5%之后，2月增长24.6%。汽车及零部件订单增长1.8%。初级金属订单反弹1.4%，金属加工订单增长0.8%。机械订单增长了1.9%。制造业占经济总量的10.3%，在美联储将于今年开始降息的预期下，制造业前景正在稳步改善。供应管理协会本月的一项调查显示，3月美国制造商对销售和经营状况相当乐观。2月制造业产出反弹。但该行业尚未走出困境。2月计算机和电子产品订单下降1.4%，而电气设备、电器和零部件订单下降1.5%。
近段时间金价两度向上发力，未能成功突破2200一线整数关口，暗示上方仍存在非常强劲的压制效果，而且日线方面MACD指标双线处于死叉运行过程当中，表明调整过程仍未结束，因此短时间内追高需要谨慎。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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