市場擔憂美聯儲激進加息，美股大跌油價創逾七年新高
周二(1月18日)隨著美債收益率全面上漲，以及交易員為美聯儲可能以更大幅度加息做準備，美元創近二周來最大單日漲幅。黃金期貨錄得連續第三個交易日下跌，投資者將注意力轉向美聯儲下周的政策會議，以獲得更多有關升息時間表的信號。美油漲逾3%，突破86關口，飙升至七年來的最高水平，在需求強勁而供應緊張的背景下，全球最大石油消費地區的現貨市場變得愈發火熱。
歐央行行長表示歐元通脹超預期
歐洲央行管委維勒魯瓦（法國央行行長）表示，最新一輪新冠肺炎疫情不會妨礙到歐元區經濟在2022年大幅增長的前景。通脹比我們先前所預料的更高，持續時間也超過預期。預計歐元區通脹將在2022年年底時回落至2.0%下方，這不是一個“盲目的確定性”。毫無疑問的是，如果歐元區通脹更加頑固，央行將采取行動。歐元區通脹將在未來兩年于2%附近正常化。
貨幣市場預計美聯儲或一次升息50基點，那將是2020年以來最大動作
貨幣市場價格顯示，越來越多投資者預期美聯儲可能逾二十年來首次大規模提高借貸成本。雖然加息25個基點仍是最有可能的情形，但掉期市場現在預計3月底前加息幅度將超過25個基點。鑒于本月政策會議預計不會有任何行動，這表明交易員至少正在考慮3月加息50個基點的可能性。自2000年5月以來， 美聯儲還從沒有一口氣加息這麽多過。近日來圍繞美聯儲更大幅加息的猜測升溫可能加劇了周二美國國債跌勢。 摩根大通CEO戴蒙上周警告稱，美聯儲收緊政策可能不會像一些人預期的那樣“和風細雨”，億萬富翁投資者Bill Ackman表示，美聯儲應該在3月加息50個基點，以重建公信力。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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