美元強烈回升，黃金跌破關口
關鍵字：黃金跌破關口
7月16日，現貨黃金跌破千八關口，接近兩日低點，由於美元指數的大幅回升讓金價有所成大，同時歐洲央行維持當前貨幣政策不變，也讓部分投資者獲利了結交易。雖然當前黃金看漲情緒濃厚，但分析師表示，在這樣的環境下，黃金多頭要小心。
投資者評估中國經濟重回增長且美國零售業表現強於預期的影響。在截至6月末的三個月裏，中國國內生產總值(GDP)同比增長了3.2%，扭轉了第一季度萎縮6.8%的局面，而且增速高於預估中值2.4%。美國6月份的零售額環比增長7.5%，5月份數據向上修正後增幅達到創紀錄的18.2％。近期經濟數據有所好轉，這一定程度上削弱了黃金的避險需求。
分析師表示，主要題材是，央行在一段時間內按兵不動，還會有更多的刺激措施，但時間要晚得多，這在一定程度上削弱了黃金最近的看漲趨勢。
當前市場對黃金看漲的情緒依然高漲，不過分析師表示，在這樣擁擠的交易中，黃金多頭要小心。在持續大漲，並且整個市場繼續大舉看多的環境下，黃金市場是可能出現大規模的清倉打壓的情況。黃金市場正在從避險資產轉向通脹對沖資產，因此金價的表現和風險資產的表現有相關性。
被注入市場的大規模流動性不僅推高了風險資產價格，也推高了金價。因為大量資產要在實際利率極低的情況下尋求收益。正是市場對通脹對沖的需求，推動金價上行突破了多個阻力區域。此外，過去一段時間市場風險情緒對黃金市場持倉並沒產生太大影響，但上行動能的逐漸消散使得多頭持倉增加變得越來越困難。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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