黃金處於極端水準，市場情緒成主要推手
關鍵字：黃金處於極端水準
目前市場情緒是近期金價走向的主要推動因素，若市場對當前金價繼續保持看多的情緒，那麼當前金價並不會出現一定的回調，而是進一步升高。反之，市場認為當前的看多情緒處於極端水準，那麼黃金走出新高則需要一段時間。
但是黃金正在醞釀著對反向分析的一個重大考驗。這是因為看漲黃金市場的人很少像今天這樣多。通過追蹤近20年的黃金平均推薦敞口水平，相較於當前，歷史上對黃金持更為樂觀態度的交易日只有0.7%。
換言之，如果市場繼續保持對於黃金極度看多的情緒，那麼投資者將不會在當前的價格水準上對黃金價格作出修正，這將推動金價進一步走高，這將是對反向分析的一個反駁。但是反之，如果市場意識到了當前的看多情緒處於極端水準，那麼黃金將從當前的價格水準回調，即使未來仍將繼續創出歷史新高，但是從時間週期看將明顯晚於黃金多頭的預期。
這反過來表明，看漲黃金的人需要保持耐心，因為他們預計金價將在未來幾周內飆升至歷史新高，這一紀錄高點為1921.18美元。但實際上到達這一點位可能需要花費更多的時間。
反向投資者仍在押注黃金將在未來幾周苦苦掙扎。但是基於當前黃金的走勢，這就是為什麼說下個月將是反向分析的一大考驗。
這就是為什麼在預測黃金短期走勢時，市場情緒比實際收益率更有幫助。只要黃金追蹤器像現在一樣看漲，歷史趨勢表明黃金將會掙扎，這意味著黃金大概率將從當前的點位的回調，即使這波回調只是暫時的，但是這也說明黃金創出紀錄新高不會像市場上多頭所預測的那樣很快到來。
這似乎可以解釋為什麼在利多因素疊加的情況下，為何黃金近期仍徘徊於近9年高點附近。但是如果市場情緒繼續推動資金持續流入黃金ETF，那麼黃金可能將繼續上漲，即便是實際收益率保持在當前的水準附近。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
最新內容
Risk Warning
Trading bullion and financial instruments carries significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, requiring careful consideration of investment objectives, experience, and risk tolerance. Key risks include market volatility, leverage risks that can amplify gains or losses, liquidity issues that may prevent executing trades at desired prices, and technical failures in online trading systems. Prices fluctuate unpredictably, and past performance does not guarantee future results. CIDT Global Bullion Limited provides general market commentary but does not offer investment advice and is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on its information, which may change without notice.
Jurisdiction Disclaimer
CIDT Global Bullion Limited's services are subject to local regulations and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with their local laws. Services are not provided in regions where they are prohibited by law, under international sanctions, or require licensing that the company does not hold. By using the platform, users confirm they are not in a restricted jurisdiction and accept full responsibility for legal compliance. The company reserves the right to decline or terminate services in restricted areas without prior notice.