美歐經濟出現分化，歐盟面臨重大困局
關鍵字：美歐經濟出現分化
7月14日，歐元兌美元出現明顯漲幅，之前美國加州州長對商業活動進行了新的限制措施，進一步強化了市場認為歐元區經濟復蘇好於美國的預期，加上市場認為歐盟峰會出現樂觀資訊的預期增加，也讓歐元出現進一步的變化。
在美國疫情二次蔓延的背景下，市場對美聯儲繼續加碼寬鬆的預期逐步升溫，反觀歐洲央行，在6月推出大規模貨幣刺激政策後，市場廣泛預計歐洲央行將在週四公佈的7月利率決議宣佈按兵不動，貨幣政策分化也在一定程度上支撐歐元。
稍早數據顯示，歐元區及德國7月ZEW經濟景氣指數均不及預期，此外美國6月季調後CPI月率回升至0.6%，為2月以來首次錄得正增長，歐元兌美元對數據反應均顯平淡。具體數據顯示，歐元區7月ZEW經濟景氣指數59.6，前值58.6；德國7月ZEW經濟景氣指數59.3，預期60，前值63.4。
義大利、英國脫歐或其他國家方面的政治不確定性再次出現或加劇，可能打壓歐元。歐元區各國分裂的風險溢價現在已經明顯下降，歐元區風險溢價關鍵拐點是歐盟復蘇基金方面出現好消息，以歐元計價的風險資產交易更為強勁。
此外歐洲央行還擴大並延長新冠肺炎大流行緊急購買計畫(PEPP)，維護了該央行的權威，事實表明，歐元區貨幣政策和財政政策同步運行，在支持經濟復蘇期間產生最“積極的”效果，利好歐元。短線對歐元兌美元維持中性立場，料整理於1.1168-1.1422區間，下一支撐和阻力分別在1.1050和1.1495。
短線來看，歐洲經濟復蘇快於美國的背景將令歐元兌美元持續走強，而此後美元指數還可能受到美國大選選情的連帶困擾，更重要到是，長期來看，過去十年間美元的上行週期或也已經因為美聯儲的新一輪寬鬆新政而迎來了反轉。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
最新內容
Risk Warning
Trading bullion and financial instruments carries significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, requiring careful consideration of investment objectives, experience, and risk tolerance. Key risks include market volatility, leverage risks that can amplify gains or losses, liquidity issues that may prevent executing trades at desired prices, and technical failures in online trading systems. Prices fluctuate unpredictably, and past performance does not guarantee future results. CIDT Global Bullion Limited provides general market commentary but does not offer investment advice and is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on its information, which may change without notice.
Jurisdiction Disclaimer
CIDT Global Bullion Limited's services are subject to local regulations and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with their local laws. Services are not provided in regions where they are prohibited by law, under international sanctions, or require licensing that the company does not hold. By using the platform, users confirm they are not in a restricted jurisdiction and accept full responsibility for legal compliance. The company reserves the right to decline or terminate services in restricted areas without prior notice.