脫歐立場堅定，英鎊將出現極限下跌？
關鍵字：脫歐立場堅定
10月7日，英國首相詹森表示英國的脫歐方案非常公平且合理，也需要和歐盟討論相關的細節，歐盟領導人可以看到實質性談判的理由，同時也會研究關於英國延遲脫歐案件的判決。一旦英國無協議脫歐，英鎊對美元將出現極限下跌的情況。
預計英國首相詹森將於今日與瑞典、丹麥以及波蘭首相進行對話，需要做的第一步是與歐盟坐下來詳細討論我們提議的脫歐方案，不希望看到北愛爾蘭處於與英國不同的關稅地區。已經準備好與歐盟進行談判，以確保達成協議，但如果這是可能的，歐盟必須作出與英國相等的妥協，有時限的擔保方案不是我們所追求的結果。
具有前瞻性的期權市場暗示，英鎊交易員對於英國是否會在10月31日無協議脫歐存疑。交易員們也不預期英國屆時將有協議脫歐。指標一個月期隱含波動率，實際上低於到期日涵蓋10月31日英國脫歐期限前的水準。這與英國延後脫歐的觀點相符。
儘管一個月期隱含波動率仍較在先前的脫歐期限以前觸及的高點14.0低了3.0，但仍處於高檔，反映出英鎊未來的波動風險，特別是在10月17-18日歐盟峰會前後。當一個月期隱含波動率的期限首次涵蓋歐盟峰會日期時，波動率跳漲超過3.0個大點。
一個月期風險逆轉指標顯示，英鎊賣權(看跌期權)相較於買權(看漲期權)的波動率溢價僅為0.4，在前一個英國脫歐期限前則為2.75。其餘天期的波動率也低於先前高點，但兩個月及三個月期的波動率有額外的溢價，因這些日期涵蓋了英國可能舉行大選的日子。
分析師稱，英國與歐盟在以北愛爾蘭邊境擔保協議為首的多項細節方面分歧巨大，在未來兩周給定期限內達成全面共識性協議的希望依舊渺茫。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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