金價高位震盪，市場聚焦美聯儲決議
關鍵字：美聯儲決議
9月17日，現貨黃金低位回升，價格整體維持在千五關口附近，而在本周的美聯儲決議公佈之前，市場仍保持一定的謹慎態度。金價在早些時段價格波動上漲幅度超過1%，而週末沙烏地阿拉伯遭遇的襲擊進一步加劇了中東的緊張局勢。
週二，美聯儲將正式召開9月貨幣政策會議。投資者在美聯儲為期兩天的貨幣政策會議之前採取觀望態度，目前人們普遍預計美聯儲將在當天晚些時候開始的為期兩天的會議上降息。繼金融危機以來美聯儲上次決議首次降息後，這將是該行近期的第二次降息。
市場似乎已經消化了降息25個基點的預期。不過，交易員們大幅增加了對不降息的押注，在週一油價大幅度攀升之後，交易員擔憂通脹上升會限制美聯儲降息。
分析師稱，市場主流還是預期美聯儲即將降息25個基點，油價飆漲，令市場對美聯儲“不用急著降息”的預期也突然大增。儘管油價傳導至核心通脹的比例很小，但通脹壓力上行會緩解美聯儲對降息的緊迫情緒。
分析師指出，因為本輪油價上漲代表地緣政治風險高企，消費者信心也會被汽油價格上漲衝擊，更需要美聯儲“保險式”降息來對沖。而美國作為主要產油國受油價飆升損害有限，將令降息幅度不會過於激進，降息25個基點即可。
分析師表示，來自沙特的消息增加了各國央行提供更多貨幣政策支持的可能性，預計能源成本上升實際上是對消費者徵稅。“我們認為，這增加了未來幾周央行將出現更多鴿派政策的原因。”
分析師指出，“金價週一從地緣政治擔憂情緒中中受到了一些支撐，但金價還沒有突破1,520美元的水準，這表明黃金還是有點脆弱，當前1,480美元是關鍵支撐位。 ”
針對美聯儲本周的利率決議，又分析認為，如果美聯儲本周沒有降息，勢必將震驚全球，首當其衝的要數黃金了。
分析師稱，如果美聯儲本周違背市場預期不實行降息，金價短期可能逆轉此前的漲勢，將快速下測1455美元。此外，還有分析師稱，如果美聯儲本周不發出進一步降息的信號，將支撐美元，這不利於金價走勢。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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