美元疲軟，歐元上漲至近日高點
關鍵字：美元疲軟
歐元對美元上漲至近日高位，新興市場實施的政策對美元指數有一定的承壓，市場的整體冒險情緒也有所升溫。而歐洲央行將公佈4月決議，由於歐元區經濟增長以及通脹前景不太樂觀，歐元上漲的動能不足。
過去數周強勢美元及歐元區疲軟基本面均施壓歐元，近期歐元區公佈的令人失望的經濟數據也確認了該地區經濟增長放緩，歐洲央行可能在更長期內按兵不動。整體而言，後市美元極有可能仍維持強勢表現，從而壓制歐元，政局方面，即將到來的歐洲議會選舉也提升了匯價面臨的不確定性。
相反，投機者持有的美元淨多頭升至3周高位，雖然美聯儲轉為更中性的貨幣政策立場，其他G10貨幣已經重新關注寬鬆/鴿派立場的延續性。
新手表示，上周五(4月5日)出爐的美國3月非農就業報告未能大幅推升歐元兌美元，雖然數據公佈後不久疲軟的時薪數據推動匯價上行，但隨後回落，本周重點關注歐洲央行3月利率決議，是否釋放降息或實施必要寬鬆政策的信號，歐元兌美元料仍持穩，中美貿易談判若進一步取得進展，有望推升匯價，而英國即使長期延遲脫歐，也不大可能大幅左右歐元兌美元。
一項調查顯示，歐洲央行將把加息時間進一步推遲至明年更晚，因歐元區經濟增長和通脹前景已經變差。僅僅幾個月之前，歐洲央行剛剛結束每月購買資產的操作，也稱為量化寬鬆(QE)，而且3月結束的定向長期再融資操作(TLTRO)也將於9月恢復。
分析師表示，某種程度上來說，歐洲央行的擔憂可以理解，因為它的工具箱已經空了。當然情況緊急時，歐洲央行可以重新啟動QE。他們甚至可以效仿日本央行，在某個地步買入股票，但即便大規模實施QE、負存款利率和強有力的前瞻性指引，3月核心通脹率距離紀錄低點仍然只有0.2個百分點。因此相對來說歐洲央行可能已經無能為力了
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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