美聯儲或轉變政策，黃金仍有望收複失地
自6月初接近今年高點之後，6月黃金價格令人失望，遠低于每盎司1800美元的水平。今年4月和5月金市情緒一度出現逆轉，應歸咎于美聯儲的立場強硬。然而道明證券認為，在經曆了四年多以來最糟糕的一個月後，金價仍有可能收複近期大部分失地。
美聯儲政策轉變迹象令金價遭遇重挫
道明證券(TD Securities)商品策略主管Bart Melek表示：”就在金價從3月底低點反彈逾200美元至6月初1900美元區間時，市場傳言再度轉為看漲，美聯儲推動金價出現重大逆轉。”
令市場措手不及的是，美聯儲承認通脹預期強于預期，並有可能最早在2013年加息兩次。在6月份聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)發布經濟預測後的幾天裏，金價跌回了每盎司1770美元的區間，白銀、鉑金和钯金也遭到重挫。
但貴金屬投資者目前不應放棄黃金。大田環球分析師表示，由于美聯儲在加息前專注于實現充分就業，黃金有時間彌補損失。
就業目標或阻礙美聯儲減碼步伐，寬松政策及供應受制有利金價
Melek稱：”盡管近期出現抛售，但我們判斷，美聯儲繼續強調充分就業的使命，應會令金價收複近期的大部分失地，如果産出缺口依然很大，美聯儲靈活的通脹目標以及願意容忍較高通脹的意願或許將支持美聯儲將超寬松的貨幣環境維持到2023年。”
Melek補充道：在實現充分就業還很遙遠的環境下，美聯儲將保持非常寬松的政策。”美聯儲應在較長一段時間內保持收益率曲線處于高度寬松的實際利率環境，這對黃金和貴金屬綜合體有利。”
Melek指出：在供應方面，由于投資和工業需求依然強勁，各種礦場生産中斷和其他制約因素將繼續限制供應增長，有利金價。”
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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