美元連漲四日，6月非農報告將披露
周四(7月1日)美元指數觸及92.60，為4月初以來最高；美元尾盤上漲0.2%，報92.53；周四稍早擴大漲幅，此前數據顯示美國上周初請失業金人數降幅大于預期，6月裁員人數降至21年低點。但在報告顯示美國6月制造業活動增長放緩，而就業分項指數顯示七個月來首次萎縮，可能是由于原材料和勞動力嚴重短缺後，美元小幅縮減漲幅。
避險需求上升美元反彈
豐業銀行最新報告則認為，過去兩個交易日美指反彈主要是因為疫情再度蔓延，市場避險需求上升，而非對美聯儲縮減政策的擔憂升級；美元指數6月創下2016年11月以來最大月線漲幅，受到美聯儲意外在月中向鷹派傾斜，當時決策官員暗示2023年底前將兩度加息，交易商關注將于周五出爐的美國非農就業報告，以確認這一前景，大田環球分析師預計，美國6月非農就業崗位增加70萬個，失業率為5.7%，5月分別為55.9萬個和5.8%
歐元兌美元前景仍偏空
星展銀行表示，歐元兌美元空頭仍然占主導地位，趨勢線支撐位1.1765是首要關注點，市場現在必須關注歐洲央行和美國聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)的7月政策會議，作為縮減購債的暗示，總的來說，美聯儲的相對強硬態度應該會影響到歐洲央行，並在8月26-28日傑克遜霍爾研討會之前進一步壓低歐元；技術面來看，趨勢線支撐位1.1765是關注的第一個支撐位，1.1883-1.1493是重要的支撐區，在技術指標被拉伸之前，有測試該區間的可能，此後將向下測試100月移動均線指標1.1782和趨勢支撐位1.1765，不排除深跌至1.1692和1.1619的可能。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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