黃金連續上漲,美聯儲購債可能性無人關注
關鍵字:美聯儲購債可能性無人關注
6月9日,現貨黃金繼續低位反彈,由於市場探索美聯儲加大購債的可能性,加上市場認為美聯儲的政策很難得到理想中的效果。加上美國主要城市還處於大規模街頭抗議中,可能引發新一輪疫情爆發。
美聯儲政策聲明將在北京時間週四(6月11日)2點發佈。主席鮑威爾在半個小時後舉行記者會,同時還將伴隨新的經濟預測出爐,顯示他們預計經濟將以多塊的速度復蘇。
市場預計,美聯儲本周料維持利率不變,因上周公佈的美國5月非農就業崗位意外增加,完全出乎市場意料。利率期貨市場顯示,投資人已放棄美聯儲在明年推行負利率政策的預期。
美聯儲將在未來幾天啟動規模6000億美元的“主街貸款工具”,這項最富雄心且最複雜的危機救助計畫旨在幫助中小型企業。美聯儲週一擴大了該計畫,將最低貸款額降低至25萬美元,上限提升至3億美元。
新冠病毒大流行引發的經濟危機已經持續了兩個多月,一些遊說者、銀行家和小企業顧問表示,最低貸款規模可能太大,無法幫助許多陷入困境的企業,一些借款人擔心會受到公眾的監督。
但華盛頓大學的研究人員週一估計,到8月時美國可能累計將有145728人死於新冠病毒感染,僅短短數日內其預估數字上調逾五千;華盛頓大學健康指標與評估研究所上周五預計,到8月時美國累計新冠死亡病例為140496。
傳染病專家稱,員警暴力執法導致黑人弗洛伊德死亡事件引發的美國主要城市大規模街頭抗議,可能引發新一波疫情。據統計,美國累計報告新冠感染病例超過200萬,死亡病例逾11萬。
如果世行的預測不幸被言中,那麼將會有更多企業永久性關閉、全球貿易流量更大幅度地減少、更多企業裁員、更多家庭大幅削減支出。這對於風險資產人氣恢復顯然更不利。
本文來源: 大田環球貴金屬
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