鮑威爾央行年會放鴿，美元重挫黃金大涨
关键词：鮑威爾央行年會
8月24日，美聯儲主席鮑威爾在全球央行年會中討論經濟和貨幣政策時表示，沒有明顯信號表示通常加速超過2%，看起來沒有經濟過熱的風險，講話內容偏向鴿派。期間美元指數大幅下跌，刷新日內新低。現貨黃金上漲近20美元，創8月以來新高。
鮑威爾表示，美聯儲穩步加息是保障美國經濟復蘇、就業盡可能強勁增長以及通脹處於掌控的最佳方式，美國經濟強勁，通脹接近2%的目標，大多數有意求職者都能找到工作，若薪資和就業增長繼續強勁，可能適合進一步加息；有很好的理由預計美國經濟將繼續表現強勁，似乎並沒有跡象表明經濟過熱的風險上升，循序漸進的加息能避免加息過慢和過快；美聯儲沒有看到通脹加速超過2%的明顯信號，與之前一樣，國內外存在風險；一旦通脹預期發生變化或者出現危機的威脅，他對美聯儲將竭盡所能行動有信心。
美聯儲主席鮑威爾有關通脹方面的評論或略微偏向鴿派，但對於以當前速度漸進加息的觀點並沒有改變。顯然市場對於美聯儲12月加息變得不及此前肯定，仍對其將在9月和12月加息有信心。
對於市場的熱點關注問題，美聯儲主席鮑威爾的表態一如往常：在經濟表現良好的情況下漸進加息、美聯儲將持謹慎態度。此外，鮑威爾並沒有回答收益率曲線的相關問題(事實上，在傑克遜霍爾年會上，幾乎每位美聯儲官員都會被問及收益率曲線)。目前看來，鮑威爾的表態不會改變市場對貨幣政策前景的預期。
分析師表示美聯儲主席鮑威爾在傑克遜霍爾年會上重申了一些關鍵性的觀點，沒有提及改變貨幣政策的細節，因而市場有關貨幣政策前景的預期沒有改變。美聯儲將在9月26日召開會議及舉行新聞發佈會，屆時或將公佈新的點陣圖，鮑威爾將細節留待下月公佈而非今日，此舉或是合適的。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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