王垣鑫：利空因素双管齐下，黄金失守关键1600
现货黄金在苦苦挣扎一周时间之后，受到了美元指数反弹，及全球黄金最大买家俄罗斯央行宣布4月1日起不再买入黄金消息的影响，今日凌晨金价持续下跌并失守1600整数关口位置，虽然在今日亚盘开盘后价格回落过程已经暂时结束，并出现持续的反弹，但截止至欧盘前为止，仍未能重新站上1590一线位置上方，短时间内或将面临调整。
高盛下调美国二季度经济预估
昨日高盛表示美国第二季经济下滑幅度将远高于先前预估，其次因民间证据和欧美国家的新冠病毒疫情导致初请失业金人数飙升，失业率也将面临攀升。此前高盛预测第二季美国实质国内生产总值环比年率将下降24%，最新预测为下降34%。此外该行首席经济学家哈哲思称，将美国第一季经济目标从此前预计的下降6%下调至下降9%。
另一方面，此前高盛预计到今年年中失业率将升至9%，而最新预期值为15%。因失业数据显示产出和劳动力市场的崩溃幅度甚至比此前预期的还要大，这将引发对未来收入和支出造成更严重的第二轮影响的恐惧。
金价失守千六后市何去何从
现货黄金价格自前段时间低点反弹以来，最大反弹幅度达到了194美元，1700上方开始的回落幅度也已经收复过半，但在短时间内美元有所反弹，加之黄金持仓下降的影响，令金价失去支撑力度。
技术面上日线级别ma5均线亦开始拐头向下形成压力，在目前周线级别顶背离仍未完全调整完毕的情况底下，金价再度失去基本面的支持，或将令金价后市短时间内的进一步反弹带来重重阻碍，现阶段金价需重点关注下方1540-1560支撑区间，若是支撑有效价格仍有望在下一轮行情当中继续尝试收复到1700上方的这部分跌幅；如若支撑区间失效，后市将延续周线调整过程并大概率回到1500下方位置，届时建议多头头寸需做好思路转换的准备。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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