林幽沃：聚焦英国“脱欧”最后时刻
关键字：欧盟，英国，脱欧
在越来越接近欧盟与英国定下的谈判最后时限，市场在近段时间内一直受英国“脱欧”进展影响，而当前最为核心的问题是北爱尔兰边境问题，英国的“脱欧”方案也为此停滞，如在2019年前不能达成谈判成功，英国可能会面临“无协议”脱欧的处境。现在，每当英国“脱欧”传出新的进展消息，整个货币市场都为之波动。
谈判中最大的问题
欧盟最初坚持称，英国和北爱尔兰之间的爱尔兰海必须进行海关和监管检查。但特雷莎·梅表示，这将把英国划分为两个海关领域，损害英国的宪法完整性。
英国“脱欧”最新消息
英国与欧盟的外交官在10月9日发表讲话，讲话中提及到各自的谈判代表就英国“脱欧”欧条款达成协议，从而缩小双方在一个关键点上的分歧，即如何避免爱尔兰和北爱尔兰之间出现硬边界。
市场估计，如果经历16个月的谈判后英国与欧盟能够达成“脱欧”协议，英国和欧盟仍需就未来贸易和安全关系的蓝图达成一致。然后，英国和欧洲议会需要在2019年3月29日英国正式脱欧前批准脱欧协议。而目前是剩下不到半年的时间，核心的问题依然在与英国首相如何统一国内意见，再与欧盟进行谈判。
本月有望达成协议？
欧盟在2018年中曾经提及希望在10月-11月能够与英国达成“脱欧”协议，而在10月17日的欧盟领导人峰会上将会出现一份临时文本，供届时欧盟各领导人讨论。如果能够顺利达成协议，这两年间由英国“脱欧”所造成的影响最会落地，市场会进行新一轮对英国与欧盟未来发展的预期。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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