林幽沃：现货黄金上演圣诞狂欢
关键词：现货黄金
在全球进入圣诞假期的时间内，市场在休息一天后进入狂欢，现货黄金在2018年再度上演上一年圣诞周行情企图爆发。目前现货黄金再冲击1280美元/盎司关口快速回落，不过后市都能全部收复跌势。现货黄金在圣诞周不断测试多头的信心，而现货黄金的的多头们正是告诉市场信心满满。
去年同期走势对比
在2018年末的走势与2017年末的走势对比上，进入12月以来的走势几乎完全一样，同样的12月利率决议前回踩，在公布完毕后盘整一段时间立即上涨。虽然圣诞周的涨幅目前不及去年，但是需要注意到的是去年有特朗普税改政策的影响令现货黄金较大涨幅，而今年也有可能在圣诞周内站上1280关口。
2019年初预期
由于美联储在12月新闻发布会上发表鸽派言论，预期美国在未来经济数据有可能将会下调的影响，降低市场对美联储未来一年的加息预期。加之，美联储点阵图也表明当前官员的想法，2019年仅仅只加息两次的预期令美元指数无力再度发力上攻。由美元计价的现货黄金有望摆脱近年来受加息利好的强势美元影响，再次冲击近年高点1375。
未来展望
在过去三年里美联储开展了加息周期，目前已经到达中性利率的初步目标，即美联储有可能随时根据经济状况而停止加息。在2019年里经济数据将会预示着美联储剩下的加息次数，目前市场预期2020年将会完全结束加息周期。而另一方面随着美股多头乏力，预示着顶部的到来，美股的下跌将会成为现货黄金最好的助力。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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