林幽沃：现货黄金收官之战！多头来袭
关键词：现货黄金
在过去数周现货黄金多次顶住空头压制死守1200大关，终于上周通过12月非农走差创逾5个月以来的新高，一举突破重压1240-43区间迎来多头复苏。不过值得注意的是，美联储12月利率决议即将到来，现货黄金将会面对2018年最后的难关，现货黄金在2018年收官之战将何去何从？
美国11月非农数据不及预期
在上周五晚间公布的非农数据来看，就业人数仅有15.5万人，不及预期并且大幅低于前值是助力现货黄金在当晚迅速突破1240-43区间的主要因素，并且后市继续测试1250关口压力后小幅回落。不过，非农数据在2018年以来保持良好的增长，在美国年末长假期前夕开始减少也属正常。
美联储12月利率决议
目前美联储12月利率决议加息概率较高，不过美联储有部分官员认为利率水平已经逐渐靠近“中性”，令市场认为美联储在明年有可能将会暂停加息。在这一基础上，我们可以推断即使美联储在12月如期进行加息，但是明年加息预期会降低，所以现货黄金有机会在12月利率决议上出现“利空兑现”的走势，摆脱美元的打压重拾涨势。
现货黄金多头来袭
在过去3年的时间里，现货黄金都在年末阶段表现出很好的走势，多头的到来基本都是在12月美联储利率决议过后。而在今年，美联储多次加息后现货黄金依然维持在1200大关的上方等待，证明美联储一旦出现暂停加息的举动，现货黄金多头将有高概率发力抬升价格。
总结：
目前现货黄金在美联储12月利率决议前提前破位，个人认为这一举动是给予投资者们的信号。不过在走势上，现货黄金依然有可能会在利率决议当晚做出大幅度回踩的行为来测试投资者们的信心。目前可以适当地以1240附近作为支撑，在不跌破该支撑的前提下来利用多头思路进行交易。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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