林幽沃：美元生死夜！延续辉煌or到此为止？
关键字：美联储，美元
在2018年9月27日凌晨美联储9月利率决议终于到来，自由于美联储在6月利率决议后发布的申明提高年内加息4次的预期，美元强劲的走势在过去数月中一直压制着现货黄金以及非美货币。今夜的年内第三次加息，美元能否实现利多兑现的状况，从而解放现货黄金以及非美货币出现大反转行情？
在本月初，对于货币政策立场偏鸽派的美联储理事、票委布雷纳德表示，由于特朗普政府的减税政策对经济起到巨大的刺激作用，未来一年或两年内美联储应该坚持逐步加息路径，可能加息至超越中性利率水平。
那么，美联储目前大部分官员认为的中性利率水平是多少呢？
在6月美联储公布的点阵图显示，美联储对长期自然利率的中位数预期是2.9%。根据布雷纳德的说法，美联储有可能加息超过3%，因为中性利率的预期区间是2.5%-3.5%。目前美国联邦基金利率为1.75%-2%，这代表至少还会加息四次。
加之，美联储主席包威尔在6月新闻发布会中提及，在2019年每次的美联储利率决议都将会举行新闻发布会，都被市场认为有可能为加息提速的表现。
尽管目前美联储官员对未来加息的看法都偏向于乐观，并且都高于市场的预期。不过，美元指数目前的走势并不算强势，更多地还是要看在今夜以及12月公布的利率决议结果来推测未来1-2年的加息步伐。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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