林幽沃：美元再获加息预期续命
关键词：美元，美联储，加息
美联储在昨夜公布8月会议纪要的声明，本次声明小幅推高9月加息概率，在公布前9月加息概率在93.6%，在公布后加息概率小幅升高至94%。在本轮加息周期中，当市场预期加息概率高达90%以上，美联储基本上都实施了提高利率的措施。
以下为大田环球林幽沃对美联储8月会议纪要的总结：
1，通胀预期：在目前美国经济数据强劲的情况下，委员们都一致认为未来通胀能够稳定2%或至2%以上的水平，算是完成当初订立的目标。
2，经济环境：由于贸易分歧以及新兴市场下行风险的缘故，委员们下调对美国下半年的经济数据预期，但对本土经济复苏依然保持信心。
3，加息预期：有部分委员认为当前利率水平已经接近中性水平，意思则是认为加息即将面临结束，货币环境从“宽松”时代结束。
从以上三点来看，当前利率水平已经接近美联储委员们的目标，相信加息有可能在2020年前结束，即达到3%-3.5%基准利率区间，美联储本次加息周期就有可能随时结束。
目前美联储正在为9月利率决议暖场，由于在本次加息周期内第一次选择在9月实施加息的措施，市场炒作美元升值的气氛可能会较激烈，导致美元再度创出新高，而非美货币以及商品等可能会结束本轮反弹，再度陷入美元的掌握之中。
林幽沃简介：
从事外汇、证券等不同金融产品交易多年，具备成熟的交易系统，能够精准追踪主力资金动向，把握行情变化节点与走势，对国际形势及地缘政治变化有较为敏锐的触觉。将多年外汇交易手法运用至贵金属操作当中，擅长为广大投资者提供环球股市信息与国际汇率的走势。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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