林幽沃：OPEC会议前瞻，原油价格走向何方？
在本周OPEC会议即将举行，美油价格从2015年每桶28美元附近的回升至2018年接近每桶72美元的高位。原油价格的上涨归功于OPEC在2016年底与俄罗斯史无前例的合作进行大幅度的减产拯救油价，在经历2017年原油价格的全面上涨超越目标价格后，OPEC与俄罗斯将会采取哪些新一轮的动作？
一、增产
此前各国油长的讲话中提及到在价格已经回到目标水平后可能考虑恢复增长的声明，如果OPEC内部成员国都同意，则有可能每日增加50万桶-80万桶的供应量。而非OPEC成员国俄罗斯的提议则较为激进，有意将2016年所达成的减产协议中全部恢复，则每日增加180万桶供应量。但由于部分国家在未来较难回归此前产量，可以确定的是此次增产的供应量依然不会达到2年前的幅度。
二、“超级OPEC”
世界除美国外，OPEC成员国及非OPEC成员在过去两年稳定全球石油价格的任务上取得成功，有可能在2017年限产的合作基础上进一步融合成组织。那么，在14个OPEC成员国以及10个以俄罗斯为首的非OPEC产油国所组成的庞大组织，其总产量达到全球石油供给的55%，意味着占据更多的市场份额则拥有更强大的定价权。
在OPEC有可能达成增产的预期下，以美油价格来看呈现下跌的走势，当前在暂时维持在每桶65美元附近运行。大田环球林幽沃认为，由于OPEC增产的幅度大概率不能将此前减产的幅度全部低消，加上各国都不愿意看到油价再次出现暴跌的迹象，预期原油价格短期依然会继续承压下滑，但最终能维稳在每桶55美元上方。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
最新内容
相关阅读
Risk Warning
Trading bullion and financial instruments carries significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, requiring careful consideration of investment objectives, experience, and risk tolerance. Key risks include market volatility, leverage risks that can amplify gains or losses, liquidity issues that may prevent executing trades at desired prices, and technical failures in online trading systems. Prices fluctuate unpredictably, and past performance does not guarantee future results. CIDT Global Bullion Limited provides general market commentary but does not offer investment advice and is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on its information, which may change without notice.
Jurisdiction Disclaimer
CIDT Global Bullion Limited's services are subject to local regulations and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with their local laws. Services are not provided in regions where they are prohibited by law, under international sanctions, or require licensing that the company does not hold. By using the platform, users confirm they are not in a restricted jurisdiction and accept full responsibility for legal compliance. The company reserves the right to decline or terminate services in restricted areas without prior notice.