林幽沃：美联储5月会议纪要关注重点
现货黄金在跌穿重要关口1300后并未出现暴跌行情，反而跌势放缓，以缓慢的震荡下跌形式稍微触碰1280附近一线后快速回升，令行情陷入震荡走势之中。但是，现货黄金该一走势没有意味着底部的确认，因1300关口在当前行情成为主要压力，在没有突破前依然处于空头趋势。
美元指数在上升过程中同样受到了阻力，昨日在周初触碰五个月以来高位94附近后快速回落，目前在93一线获得支撑后缓慢上涨。
北京时间5月24日凌晨2:00将会公布5月美联储会议纪要，在美元指数受阻和现货黄金犹豫不决的时候，美联储5月会议纪要成为引导市场走势的关注点。
美联储对加息看法
由于在美联储3月会议后新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔讲话中没有提及到加息将会加快，市场当时认为讲话属于鸽派。但随着时间的推移，美国通胀率有加速上升的迹象，本次公布会议纪要需要关注加息预期是否会提升至4次。
美联储对2018年6月加息预期
据“美联储观察工具”显示，市场当前定价6月加息的概率为95%。若美联储仍表示“保持渐进加息路径”，这足以巩固市场预期，将支撑美元走高金价回落。若美联储表示仍有不确定性，则金价有望从中受益。
美联储对美债收益率上涨看法
由于基准利率的上升预期与美国政府推出大量债券的影响，令美国国债收益率在近期取得不少的涨幅，美国十年期国债站上重要的3%收益率。美联储对美国国债的收益曲线一直比较重视，在目前3%收益率的情况下，美联储有可能会减少“缩表”的总额，以免债券收益率上涨过快。
大田环球贵金属分析师林幽沃认为，美联储5月会议纪要对当前行情有引导性作用，但破位走势可能要等到次日才会出现。在通胀率的达标下，市场关注美联储在2018年能否达到4次加息，该看法属于最为主要，届时需要密切关注。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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