王垣鑫：加息成中美贸易局势后焦点
随着上周中美发表联合声明，中美贸易局势开始缓和，市场的焦点开始转向6月14号的美联储利率决议，大田环球贵金属留意到，对于本次6月份美联储是否继续上调利率，市场对其加息的预期已经达到了97%以上，自美国正式进入加息周期以来，上调利率基本已经可以看做是每个大加息周期的必备环节，市场也对此做好了充分的心理准备，在更多时候市场的焦点甚至转向了寻找美联储是否有加速上调利率的依据。
消息方面，美国费城联储主席哈克周一称，通胀上升意味着美联储今年应再升息两次、甚或三次，最快可能下个月行动。另外美联储主席鲍威尔也将于本周五参加瑞典央行第350届会议会议上关于“金融稳定和央行透明度”的小组讨论，届时可关注其是否有透露关于今年加息进程的话语。
大田环球贵金属提醒，最近债券收益率的上升，加上积极的经济数据和不断上升的通货膨胀，增加了人们对美联储将提高利率和收紧货币政策的预期，也顺便对黄金造成了打压，加上对美联储将于6月再次加息的预期，无疑将进一步增加近期金价的下行压力，因为对利率上升的预期往往会使美元对寻求收益的投资者更具吸引力，从而提振美元及债券收益率，使像黄金这样的非收益资产变得不那么有吸引力。
但是最近提振美元的利差不太可能持续支撑美元，美联储加息预期上升空间有限。期货市场目前认为该央行2018年还将进一步加息两次，每次加息25个基点。
大田环球贵金属分析师王垣鑫认为，美联储6月份的加息已为大概率事件，市场对其已经做好了充足的心理准备，难免会出现买预期卖事实的情况，加之目前金价自高点已经持续下跌了超过80美元的空间，个人认为若在公布利率决议之前，金价不能有效反弹，则公布加息后金价的下跌空间或相对有限。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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