黃金連漲被終結，黃金未來表現如何
關鍵字：黃金連漲被終結
8月14日，黃金市場收跌，由於美債收益率上漲，同時美國打算幫助遭受疫情打擊的經濟刺激計畫目前陷入僵局，市場對黃金的興趣明顯減少，加上相關美國經濟資料的向好表現，黃金市場迎來更多考驗。
來自世界各地的糟糕經濟資料，包括令人失望的美國零售銷售資料，未能説明避險黃金。指標美國10年期國債收益率徘徊在七周高位附近，而隨著國會休會，對美國祭出新一輪援助計畫的希望逐漸消退。收益率攀升增加了持有黃金等無收益資產的機會成本，今年迄今，黃金價格已經攀升了逾28%。
分析師指出，要從幾個方面來確定修正是否結束，包括市場情緒、持倉水準、投機行為等。從趨勢模型來看，其動能信號100%是看多金價的，從過去走勢來看，這之後往往會跟隨者長期的盤整階段。那些過早入場逢低買入的投資者可能面臨挑戰。由於黃金市場整體極為看多的市場情緒，以及散戶投資者的投機行為等，總體而言金價還有進一步回落的空間。
投資者這波獲利了結造成的壓力短暫，對金價年末上探2000美元的看法保持不變。面對市場不確定因素，金價仍有上升空間。瑞銀表示，美聯儲繼續大放“鴿”詞，美國實際利率及美元將進一步下跌，同時，美國大選臨近，市場不確定性增加。瑞銀認為，在此情形下，金價將延續升浪，年末前有望再次挑戰2000美元，但是預計明年3月、6月及9月，金價將分別下滑至1950美元、1900美元及1850美元。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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