美联储放鸽救赎金价？恐怕是一厢情愿
关键词：美联储放鸽
金价在再次刷新了两个交易日地点后，主流预期为美联储离场偏鹰且非农向好，将加剧金价跌势。尽管美联储措辞骗鸽，或者是非农数据不及预期，导致金价有所反弹，但是效果也只是暂时的，反而意味着是做空的好时机。
过去一周金价持续盘整，在本周美联储决议和美国7月非农就业报告出炉前，市场情绪更趋谨慎。澳新银行分析师Daniel Hynes认为，目前投资者没有明确交投方向，特别是在美联储方面传出更清晰的信息之前，都会是这种情况。
美联储即将开启为期两天的货币政策会议，市场广泛预期且维持货币政策不变，但投资者将密切关注美联储措辞，寻找未来加息步伐的线索。美联储今年已加息两次，并暗示年底前还会有两次加息。
当前任何的消息面事件都很难逆转金价的下行趋势。从技术上来看，本轮跌势的目标价位将在1180美元/盎司一线，而眼下，任何短线的反弹都不意味着趋势的扭转，反而是逢高做空的良机。
大宗商品及能源技术分析师认为，现货金倾向于跌至1206美元/盎司-1214美元/盎司区间。
由于期权到期，大约1200份新空头合约被加入到未平仓合约中，交易员仍未将黄金视为避风港，而9月美元指数期货最近维持在94关口上方，这些都使得黄金目前处于守势。
大量看跌期权在1200美元/盎司的关键水平下，如果我们继续持稳在这一领域，可能会带来新买家以及空头回补，金价有可能反弹。
日本央行周二承诺目前将维持利率在“非常低的”水准，并采取措施使其大规模刺激计划更具灵活性。与此同时，英国央行料在周四(8月2日)宣布加息25个基点。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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