做多黄金不可取？现在时机已到
关键词：现货黄金价格
大田环球贵金属认为，虽然近期黄金表现不佳，但是也带来了买入的良机。黄金空头触及历史新高，金价可能在1200附近筑底。若下半年美元涨势逆转，金价将获得支撑，空头行情上演回补。
黄金今年的表现的确很糟糕，过去三个月下跌近8%，较2018年高点下跌11%，因美元兑全球其他主要货币走强，对美元计价资产造成打压。
不过，黄金这一轮暴跌或许已经给投资者带来一次难得的买入机会。交易方面的数据是看多黄金的主要原因。这些数据详细列出了每周期货市场和期权对黄金的感兴趣程度。
正如预期的那样，市场的目光一直在追随着黄金的下跌走势。现在糟糕的市场情绪让分析师怀疑，如果所有人都卖出了黄金，还有谁愿意接盘呢？(言下之意，没有对手盘市场无法运作；市场没有分歧，主力控盘方也要制造分歧)
虽然分析师看多未来金价走势，但市场的看法呈现巨大分歧。华尔街机构投资者中有41%看多金价，35%看空金价，另有24%表示不置可否。而散户交易者中，41%看多金价，42%看空金价，另有17%表示不确定。
投资者表示，一方面，贸易摩擦导致新兴市场国家选择抛售黄金保外储，美元高位运行仍将利空黄金；但另一方面，美国总统特朗普喊话试图打压美元涨势，却支撑金价走势。同时，在夏季结束之后，来自中国和印度的实物黄金买需可能会重新提振实物买需，或有望令金价摆脱颓势。
截止7月24日当周，对冲基金和基金经理增持纽约商品期货交易所(COMEX)期金净空仓至纪录高位，因美元指数坚挺且美元兑人民币大幅走强。若今年下半年美元涨势逆转，则金价将获得支撑，黄金空头将上演回补行情。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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