贸易战升级难以提振金价
关键词：贸易战升级
美联储8月利率决议前美元走强，金价承压下行。虽然中美贸易摩擦再度升级，但仍难提振金价。原因是美国经济走高以及美联储强化紧缩都在推动美元，打压美元计价的黄金。即使稍后的美联储8月决议消息偏向悲观，但金价也难以马上扭转颓势。
虽然美国总统特朗普四处煽风点火掀起贸易摩擦的做法，令投资者很对全球经济的前景担忧，同时中东地缘局势也依旧硝烟不断，但这些以往能够轻易诱发避险买需推动金价上涨的风险消息事件，今年却突然都失去了魔力。
分析师对此解释称，今年以来美国经济向好，美联储强化政策紧缩预期的状况，才决定了市场基本走向，利率上行预期推动美元指数走强，从而打压了以美元计价的黄金价格。
而鉴于这一趋势在下半年不会有根本改观，美联储或仍将再加息两次，因此分析师表示，黄金的漫漫熊途尚远未结束，今年剩余时间将维持阴跌走势不变。
美元兑人民币以及其他具有成长题材的货币上涨，且中美贸易摩擦进展局势的升级令人加剧市场忧虑，打压亚洲股市。
美联储8月利率决议料将维持利率不变，但经济增长强劲加上通胀上升，可能让美联储按计划在年底前再加息两次，尽管特朗普加大了对加息举措的批评。
业内分析师指出，本周美联储将发布货币政策决议，此后美国7月非农就业数据出炉。消息若偏向积极，显示美国经济继续强势，或拉动美元跳涨进一步令金价承压，但即使情况相反，现货黄金价格的走势趋势也难以立刻扭转，顶多只能出现“死猫跳”式短线反弹。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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