机构激辩美联储加息金价不跌
关键词：机构激辩美联储加息金价不跌
今年以来对美联储升息的预期是黄金市场所面临的最大不利因素，下周的美联储FOMC会议将是关注的焦点，市场将期望寻找升息是否真的会在9月到来的线索。
自进入危机以来，利率和金价之间的关系似乎在变得更紧密，因此，一些分析师认为，目前金价的疲软预示着升息的到来。
然而市场也不乏反对者。一些分析师表示，美联储升息并不一定意味着金价的下行。
麦格理银行称，1994年以来美联储的31次升息中，金价大多是有上涨而非下跌。
凯投宏观的报告则称，尽管利率和金价之间有负相关关系，但这一关系目前可能已经影响过度。该机构的报告表示：“这首先是一个度的问题，美联储如果升息到4%，不会对黄金的持有带来太大影响，因为黄金是有避险需求的，一旦发生问题，短期内的涨幅就会超过4%。如果因为通胀上升美联储升息，那么这会增加黄金对冲通胀的需求。而如果美联储升息引发其它资产的抛售，包括股票和债券等，那么也会增加黄金的避险需求。”
ETF Securities也在最新的报告中表示：“在2015年年初，2015年12月美联储基金期货有差不多50个基准点是紧缩的，到5月，已经减少到了20个基准点。”该机构认为，对美联储紧缩的预期在减少。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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