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美国经济数据强劲 黄金破位可顺势跟进

关键字:黄金走势

【基本面】

近期美国经济数据强劲,因此市场不应低估11月非农就业数据的重要性。我们预计美联储将在1月份削减QE,但12月份也有可能。美联储看起来已让市场相信削减QE并非收紧货币政策,的确,近期美联储的沟通政策已经帮助打破了10年期美债收益率与美联储首次加息的长期正相关性。另外,美国金融市场状况位于数年高位,部分原因是美股近期屡创新高。这些因素将支持我们的观点,也即美联储可能早于市场的预期削减QE,而大多数其他新兴市场央行将转向更加鸽派的立场。

 

【技术分析】

从日线来看,昨日收取一根带较长下影线的实体大阴,布林带开口向下,MA5、MA10继续成死叉放量,附图MACD绿色能量放量,RSI粘合走平,日内黄金价格白盘关注反弹力度。从4小时来看, 金价的上影线和下影线比较长,可见多空争夺比较厉害,金价已经击穿布林带下轨,在布林带下轨下方运行,布林带有缩口迹象,rsi粘合向下,MACD已成死叉 ,从小时图来看,布林带开口向下,MA5下穿MA10/MA30成死叉放量,综合来看,金价还有回落的意思,白盘黄金价格上方关注1230-1236,下方关注1218-1212,可参考小区间1220-1230,破位可以顺势跟进,不破区间操作。

操作建议:

1、反弹1234-1235做空,止损1238上,目标1228-1225

2、回落1217-1218做多,止损1214下,目标1223-1225

 

【今日关注】

23:30     US   EIA天然气库存变化

星期五, 12月 06

06:30     AU  AiG建筑业表现指数

07:50     JP   外汇储备

13:00     JP   同步指标

13:00     JP   领先经济指标

16:00     UK  Halifax房价指数(月比)

16:00     UK  Halifax房价指数(年比)

16:00     CH  外汇储备

16:15     CH  消费者物价指数(月比)

16:15     CH  消费者物价指数(年比)

 

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