11.4国际现货黄金价格走势分析(2014)
关键字:11.4国际现货黄金价格走势分析(2014)
【行情回顾】
11月3日欧洲中盘时段,国际现货黄金价格自早盘时段受高位获利盘回吐至1167美元/盎司以后,重新逐步反弹至1170上方,并于纽约盘面开市前,录得日内最高价1174.18美元/盎司,纽盘开市以后,金价出现第一轮单边下滑,中盘时段金价承压于1170下方,尾盘开市前,金价回升至1170以后再次受挫,尾盘时段金价以震荡下行走势为主,日收1165.72美元/盎司,跌幅为0.57%。
【基本面分析】
关于美元兑一篮子非美货币的走势,本周一美元兑一篮子货币全线跳空高开,美元指数刷新了近几年来的高点,欧元对美元在昨日的亚市时段大跌,后市或有望进一步打开下行空间,英镑、澳元和日元昨日均呈现下行格局,受美国10月ISM制造业指数向好影响,市场再次把焦点关注于美联储的加息前景问题上,同时昨日达拉斯联储主席发言指出美联储加息时间可能早于市场预期,在美元流动性将随美国经济向好进一步收缩的预期下,美元的货币信贷地位一再提高,以美元计价的大宗商品,如黄金白银等贵金属,国际石油等将持续承压。
美债市场方面,美国公债收益率本周一上升至1个月以来的最高水平,受美10月ISM制造业指数的利空推动下,指标10年期公债收益率一度攀升至逾三周高位,美国长期公债收益率上升,反映为美国长期公债价格下跌,暗示市场避险情绪再度降温,风险市场继续吸纳避险资金,美股呈震荡上行走势,盘中再次刷新历史高位,黄金作为保值资产则面临市场的大幅抛售,与此同时,避险资金也从金市转移至美元或债市。
【技术分析】
从日线图上看,昨日K线收取烛体较短的阴线,均线系统持空头排列,布林下轨跟随K线向下运行,KDJ和MACD指标均发出空头信号。从4小时图上看,K线处于布林中轨和下轨构成的通道之内,布林轨道开口向下扩张,5日和10日均线呈粘合状态,KDJ从超卖区弱势反弹,MACD绿柱缩量至零轴,双线呈钝化整理。从1小时图上看,布林轨道下行开口收窄后走平,均线系统发散后呈空头排列。总体上看,现货黄金行情自上周释放出强劲的空盘动能以后,昨日出现低位盘整,操作建议以区间震荡思路为主,关键阻力位1168,1172,1175,关键支撑位1162,1158,1154。
【本日重要数据和事件】
英国10月Markit/CIPS建筑业PMI
欧元区9月生产者物价(PPI)
美国9月贸易数据、9月工厂订单和9月耐用品订单修正值
欧洲央行执委科尔在经济学人杂志组织的会议上,就“欧元区当前形势”发表演说
德国央行理事Andreas Dombret就欧洲银行业监管问题发表演说
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本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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