12.9现货黄金价格走势分析（2013）
关键字：12.9现货黄金价格走势分析（2013）
【基本面】
美国11月非农新增就业人数为20.3万，高于市场预期18万，失业率从7.3%意外降至7.0%，创2008年以来最低水平。修正后数据显示今年1-11月非农月均新增就业人数升至18.9万，接近联储委员目标20万，高于去年同期17.9万，就业市场在四季度显著改善无疑增加了美联储提前削减QE的可能性，FOMC将在12月19号举行年内最后一次利率决议。通胀前景再度恶化，10月个人消费支出物价指数年率从0.9%降至0.7%，核心PCE年率从1.2%降至1.1%，通缩压力继续上升可能制约美联储退出宽松政策的意愿，维护物价稳定是美联储的双重使命之一，美联储制定的长期通货膨胀率目标是2.0%。10月个人消费支出月率上升0.3%，然而10月个人收入月率却意外下滑0.1%，由于可支配收入是决定消费支出的重要因素，收入增加滞后可能制约未来消费。
与昨晚美国GDP数据后行情相似，美元先扬后抑，ICE美元指数短暂冲高至80.65后快速回落，非美货币全面反弹，黄金触及1211后也强势逆转站上1240，反弹幅度超过30美元。汇市和商品市场均震荡不已，黄金走势仍未完全确定，继续关注ICE美元指数能否上破81.50-81.80长期阻力位，若好于预期的结果最终推动美元反弹则可能打压黄金大幅回落，相反若ICE美元指数持续破败，则面临转为走弱的风险，疲软美元反过来有望提振黄金反弹。如笔者周初在评论中指出，CFTC数据显示黄金非商业期货净多头占未平仓合约比例已经降至10年最低水平，显示黄金市场看空情绪达到极限，在这种情况下建议投资者切勿盲目追空，只有在金价显著反弹后才考虑逢高建仓。
【技术分析】
早间现货金开盘1230一线，随后开始下行，当前4小时和半小时图指标死叉运行，黄金现货行情偏空，当前均线也有拐头向下的迹象，预计伦敦金价格会形成死叉。1小时图中，布林带走平，行情偏震荡。现货黄金逢高做空为主，今天金价上方关注1231、1240阻力，下方支撑1224、1215。今日金价首先关注今日黄金价格分水岭1228附近的得失情况，上方再就是1233和1238-1240的压制，上破1240行情有望去测试1250一线，下方关注1225和1220的支撑情况，下破1220有望去1210附近寻求支撑。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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