美国经济反复 市场静待美联储议息会议
关键字：美国经济、美联储议息会议
【基本面】
随着美联储议息会议临近，美联储减少购债预期逐步升温，终结了从8月初开始的黄金投资的反弹行情，金价从1433 美元 /盎司的三个月高点回落。后市美元指数触底反弹以及市场预期美联储缩减QE，都将利空黄金，金价弱势格局很难改变。
但9月6日公布的美国就业数据好坏不一，并且和市场预期差别很大。8月新增非农就业人数低于市场预期，只有16.9万人。更出乎市场预料的是，7月新增就业人数下调5.8万人，至10.4万人，6月也下调1.6万人，两个月合计下调7.4万人。这表明最近几个月美国就业增长势头明显放缓。
另一个反映就业市场情况的重要指标——失业率却意外降至7.3%，创2008年12月以来新低，似乎表明美国失业状况得到缓解。但8月劳动力参与率也降至63.2%，说明因为工作机会太少或工资水平不可接受，部分劳动者已经退出劳动大军，使得失业率计算的基数变小，造成表面上失业率降低的假象。美国实际就业复苏力度有限，使得美联储退出QE的步伐可能放慢，黄金受到的压制作用将减小。
【市场静待联储议息会议】
9月17日—18日美联储即将召开FOMC会议，市场对本次会议决议的预期分歧很大，特别是8月非农就业不及预期，美联储是否改变购债政策依然充满变数。彭博的最新调查显示，一半的经济学家认为美联储会缩减国债规模100亿美元，而MBS购买规模会保持不变。
尽管与8月的调查相比，预计美联储在9月缩减QE的人数下降了15%，但在议息会议前，市场对美联储减少购债规模的预期依然存在，对黄金的走势产生一定压制。 综合已上可知，美国经济强劲复苏和投机资金将推动美元进一步反弹，市场对美联储缩减QE的预期利空黄金，再加上叙利亚局势的暂时缓和，金价的近期走势不容乐观。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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