美聯儲嚴重偏鴿，黃金急速上漲
關鍵字：美聯儲偏鴿
3月21日 ，美聯儲明顯的鴿派言論讓美元創新近日新低，現貨黃金再次走強，美債收益率持續下降，這從長期看來會支撐黃金的走強。但是目前黃金的上漲比較反復，黃金ETF的持倉量沒有明顯增加。
鮑威爾在之後的發佈會上稱，美聯儲將保持耐心和觀望狀態。希望維護美國經濟強勁增長的前景，目前就業市場強勁，通脹接近2%目標，預期2019年美國經濟增速堅實，但小於2018年過於強勁的漲勢。預期今年底，資產負債表占GDP比重約為17%，峰值時期占比為25%。同時美聯儲擬今年5月將美債縮表規模減半，到9月末停止縮表。
美元從高位回落，債券收益率也在下降，這意味著這些資產的吸引力下降，黃金變得更有吸引力。美元指數已經連續四個交易日下跌，在美聯儲利率決議後跌破96大關，刷新一個半月新低。
英國脫歐局勢仍然受到關注，英國首相特雷莎·梅週三表示，已向歐洲理事會主席Tusk致信，英國尋求脫歐延長至6月30日，英國的政策目標仍是有序脫歐。
進入本周以來，美債收益率正在測試關鍵支撐位，由於美聯儲今年再次加息的可能性為零，突顯出投資者對美債收益率更大的擔憂以及美聯儲對美國經濟狀況的憂慮正日益加劇。
美債收益率此前跌破2016/2018的上升趨勢線後，隨後又跌破對稱三角形，預計美債收益率將進一步下挫。由於美債收益率與黃金呈現負相關性，若美債繼續下行，這將支撐金價後市漲勢。
黃金價格與基金經理淨頭寸之間的高度相關性。在過去的幾年裏，兩者的變動非常接近，這或許在暗示黃金受到操縱。另一中可能的解釋是，投資者的情緒隨著價格而波動。隨著價格走高，大眾投資者變得更有信心，並進一步買入黃金，基金經理當然也不例外，只是其看漲的程度並不如大眾投資者。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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