美聯儲鴿派發言增多，歐元將拿下高地
關鍵字：美聯儲鴿派
歐元對美元在2月10日早些時候一度達到新的高點。晚點，美聯儲將會公佈美聯儲1月貨幣政策會議紀要，市場預期美元將承受新一輪的空頭力量。因美聯儲有暫停加息步伐的跡象。不過本周歐元區數據也需要重點關注。
美聯儲將公佈1月貨幣政策會議紀要，巴克萊研究指出，將密切關注FOMC委員們是否認為本輪加息週期已經完成，抑或仍預計未來將進一步加息，也就是說，大量FOMC委員已表達出對加息仍需保持耐心，或暫停加息週期，以評估未來經濟數據表現，雖然貨幣政策聲明的措辭暗示緊縮週期完成，委員會無意於上修利率前瞻指引。
此次紀要也將闡述什麼因素導致委員會認為金融條件收緊，及經濟風險轉向下行的原因，1月高級貸款官員意見調查可能對前者進行說明，而後者料由大量因素主導；此外紀要極有可能暗示委員會準備公佈何時結束縮減資產負債表的計畫。
與此同時，在中國與美國將達成貿易協議的預期逐步升溫的情況下，美元極有可能處於守勢，可能帶動歐元兌美元漲至1.14關口。不過由於週四將出爐歐元區及德國系列採購經理人指數(PMI)，若數據不佳恐加重市場對歐元區經濟增長的疑慮，限制歐元上行空間。
總而言之，歐元兌美元短線走勢仍需看美元臉色。丹麥丹斯克銀行表示，在近期市場對歐洲央行實施新一輪定向長期再融資操作(TLTRO)進行討論後，歐元兌美元承受的賣壓有所緩和，隔夜美元指數承受賣壓並終盤收跌，預計歐元兌美元將交投於1.15附近區間。
若歐元區經濟數據企穩，且全球貿易局勢緩和，那麼可策略性逢低買入，雖然短期內美國經濟增長對美元的提振可能削弱數據對歐元的支撐，日內焦點轉向美聯儲1月貨幣政策會議紀要，仍預計當前市場對美聯儲2019年加息的計價過於鴿派，短線美元可能獲得支撐。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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