ETF持仓持续下降 现货黄金低位震荡
关键字：现货黄金走势
【行情分析】
根据最新银行业消息人士及贸易商指出，因农历春节过后需求减弱，过去一个月中国的银行业者减少进口黄金。此外，由于人民币走贬，拖累国内金价，同样打压进口买盘。人民币走贬拖累上海金价，在3月初时转为较国际现货金贴水，一度达到每盎司贴水10美元，而在2014年年初时，仍有20美元的溢价。
除了全球最大的黄金消费国中国的需求有所减弱之外，国际黄金基金等机构组织也出现了减持现象，黄金ETF基金持仓一直持续走低，显示出基金经理并不看好金价后市。ETF基金持仓自3月24日高位下滑以来，已经连续下滑7个交易日，7个交易日没有增仓纪录。4月2日的持仓再次与前值持平。数据显示，截至4月2日全球最大的黄金上市交易基金SPDR Gold Trust的黄金持仓量与前一个交易日相比持平在810.98吨。随着美国经济的复苏，特别是货币政策方面，美联储偏于鹰派，这使得黄金的抗通胀能力减弱，目前很多投资者均认为不应该对现货黄金后市存有更多的期待。
【技术分析】
现货黄金日内依托着5日均线的支撑有所反弹，虽然尚未看到有明显的反弹迹象，但是下跌力度已经基本趋缓，同时KDJ指标在低位出现金叉，预示着反弹很可能在短期出现。由短线15分钟K线图上看，布林通道在收窄之后再度形成向外发散的喇叭口迹象，现在现货黄金15分钟走势沿着布林线的上轨反弹。虽然黄金在技术上有触底迹象，但是在非农等数据尚未公布之前，现货黄金行情方向依然未明，建议投资者先静待非农数据出炉之后再作打算。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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