非农将登台 现货黄金“且行且珍惜”
关键字:现货黄金行情
【行情分析】
从3月17日开始,伦敦金在接触及1392美元的高位后,展开了单边下跌的行情,在刚刚过去的十四个交易日里金价累计下跌100多美元,跌幅达6.5%,周K线连续俩周报收阴线。本周前四个交易日,在1275美元一线企稳后,在1275-1295区间弱势震荡,周四报收1286美元/盎司。
2月份非农新增就业人口跃升至17.5万人,连续三个月上涨,显示美国经济正逐步走出去年极寒天气的影响,一定程度上打消了前期对美国经济增长的忧虑。也大大增强了美联储的鹰派倾向,促使美联储在刚刚结束的议息会议上进一步缩减QE规模,也让明年第二季度加息的预期一度甚嚣尘上,随后便让2014年开年以来表现风光的黄金遭到重创。
随后在本周一(4月4日)美联储主席耶伦急忙发表鸽派言论,为市场加息预期灭火。随后金价止跌企稳,但正如美联储在3月份的议息会议上表述的一样:后市判断美国经济好转,还需要综合美国多方面的经济和就业数据来衡量。
本次即将公布的3月份非农是判断美国经济受天气影响的拐点是否出现的关键数据,也是美联储货币政策的重要依据,对金银走势的影响甚大
【技术分析】
目前现货黄金交投较为清淡,亚盘黄金小幅波动交投于1285-86,整体波幅有限,非农公布之前市场显得尤为谨慎,预计在下午欧盘时段,黄金的波幅依然不会太大,继续承压于1288之下,在晚间8:30之后,黄金将会剧烈波动,注意做好风险控制。若数据好于预期,黄金继续承压下跌;若介于预期和前值之间,黄金会小幅反弹,而后继续承压;若数据低于预期和前值,那么黄金将会展开反弹,站上1300关口。
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本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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