美元漲勢明顯，黃金出現明顯下滑
關鍵字：美元漲勢明顯
1月15日，現貨黃金受到重挫，一度下跌1.25%，為上周的最大跌幅，而美元則繼續保持上漲趨勢，市場投資資金持續流出黃金ETF，降低了黃金作為通常工具的吸引力。市場目前更看好美元。
分析師稱，美聯儲主席鮑威爾發表了鴿派言論後，黃金交易活躍，但金價仍難以進一步上行，因美元避險需求上升，拜登公佈的1.9萬億美元刺激計畫的細節也存在不確定性。金價上行受到50日移動均線的限制，即1862美元水準，若下破週四低點1829美元，則可能跌至1月11日的低點1817美元。
數據顯示，全球最大黃金ETF—SPDR Gold Trust上一交易日持倉減少10.21噸，01月13日持倉減少10.5噸，最新持倉數量已降至1161噸，較2020年9月下旬減少達117.8噸。
現貨金價在年內將呈現先漲後跌局面，一方面隔夜經鮑威爾講話近一步確認的美聯儲寬鬆政策仍將線上前景，以及當前全球疫情依舊肆虐的大背景，仍會在上半年推動金價重新上行，但更長遠來看，美國新政府各項財政政策的一一落實，美債收益率的進一步回升，以及全球普及接種疫苗的前景，將漸漸對金價構成更重的阻力，並推動資金更多流向高風險資產資產市場。該行預計，現貨金價在3月將回升至1950美元，6月進一步升至2100美元的峰值，此後在9月和12月則將緩步回落至2000美元和1900美元。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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