美元反彈,黃金一度失守千八關口
關鍵字:黃金一度失守千八關口
7月9日,現貨黃金出現大幅回落,一度失守千八關口,由於美國單日新增病例創下新紀錄後,股市出現明顯下跌,投資者出現獲利了結,金價回吐,同時投資者入手美元以求避險,降低了對黃金作為替代資產的需求。
美元指數週四從近一個月低位反彈超50點,最高升至96.79;在佛羅里達報告新增冠狀病毒死亡病例和新住院人數創新高之後,投資者將美元作為避風港。美聯儲官員週三對美國經濟復蘇的持久性提出了新的質疑,而新出爐的企業調查凸顯出新冠病毒大流行肆虐帶來的風險。
美國上周首次申請失業救濟人數下降,但由於新冠病例持續增加,並且大公司準備實施裁員數以千計的新計畫,失業人數將頑固的保持在高位。
近幾個月來,世界各地的央行紛紛大幅降息,某些央行還出臺了史上最大規模的刺激措施,以幫助緩解疫情對經濟的打擊。刺激措施往往會提振黃金,黃金被認為是對沖通脹和貨幣貶值的工具。
金價還將繼續走高,看向1850美元/盎司,之後才會出現比較明顯的投資者獲利了結。目前沒有什麼能促使投資者拋售黃金的重要因素,人們仍然需要黃金來對沖通脹和各種不確定性。
只有金價大舉下跌至1700美元/盎司下方才會讓市場對眼下這個上行趨勢有所懷疑。幾十美元的回落是無法動搖對黃金看漲的預期的,只有非常大幅度的下跌才能把這幾年築底後的突破抹去。在目前這種環境下,投資組合中應當配置至少10%的黃金。
分析師稱,“我將黃金的配置上調到了15%,金價還有很大的上行空間,即使有修正,也能漲到1850水準。不過投資者或許要注意美元的表現,在持續低迷後,美元指數已經有了觸底的跡象。儘管看好黃金繼續走高,但一旦美元突然出現回升,那麼金價的第一反應仍可能是回落。”
本文來源: 大田環球貴金屬
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