黃金牛市漲幅明顯,突破千八只是時間問題
和以往幾波黃金牛市相比,本輪牛市黃金漲幅只有69%,而大部分黃金牛市漲幅在400%以上,但在全球大型刺激計畫、負利率政策、通縮和滯漲的背景下,黃金未來都會走出新的高度。
這導致貨幣貶值。迄今為止,全球對疫情的財政政策回應為9萬億美元,並且有可能進一步攀升。這支持了像黃金這樣的可儲值的資產。
在世界範圍內,央行在降低利率的同時,渴望收益的投資者呼籲有合理收益的債券交易。這推高了債券價格,壓低了債券收益率。
低利率阻礙了投資者投資政府債券,並迫使他們去別處尋找避險資產,如黃金。
可以發現歐洲政府的債券收益率基本為負。渴望獲得收益的投資者與央行的負利率政策共同推動了大多數政府債券收益率進入負數區域。其他發達國家的債券收益率也緊隨其後。
生產力和GDP疲軟,高失業率和初級商品(食品,水,住房)成本高昂正使得世界各地的投資者購買作為價值存儲的安全港資產黃金。
國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)預計經濟將陷入嚴重衰退,復蘇速度將放緩。IMF在6月30日的最新評論中將其對全球GDP的預期下調至-4.9%。
目前尚沒有跡象顯示全球央行將放慢印鈔的步伐,也沒有看到任何發達國家的央行具備加息的能力。貨幣貶值為黃金提供了堅實的長期論據。
比如近幾十年來,石油與天然氣之比一直固定為6:1,因為定價是按能源當量確定的。但是美國葉岩油革命改變了這一點,自從2007那邊葉岩氣產量激增以來,這一比例已經發生了改變。
白銀是一種工業金屬,同時兼具部分避險屬性。同時白銀是伴生礦,即開採其他金屬過程中的副產品,這也是其主要的來源,初級銀礦的產量非常少。
本文來源: 大田環球貴金屬
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