歐元後市可能出現大幅上漲，歐盟解體風險降低
關鍵字：歐盟解體風險降低
6月23日，歐元兌美元出現震盪上行趨勢，歐洲經濟逐步恢復常態，勇士歐洲央行、德國和委員會不斷宣佈新的經濟刺激政策，讓歐元區的發展有了明顯的變化。不過疫情的二次爆發可能會讓投資者保持一定的謹慎，同時歐盟解體的風險有所降低。
歐元區6月Markit製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)初值46.9，創4個月新高，預期45，前值39.4。歐元區經濟的歷史性衰退本月再次緩解，因大量企業被迫關閉，以遏制新冠疫情的蔓延，這些企業重新開業，這表明歐元區經濟有望實現V型復蘇，資料公佈後歐元進一步上漲。週一(6月22日)公佈的歐盟6月消費者信心指數也好於預期。
目前來看，新冠疫情及其對經濟的影響依然存在高度不確定性，歐洲央行管理委員後關於緊急抗疫購債計畫(PEPP)將在未來12個月保持淨購買的決定是正確的，無論如何，購債將持續到管理委員會認定危機已經過去為止。
歐洲央行副行長金多斯早些時候表示，自從歐洲央行3月份推出該貨幣政策措施以來，金融市場動盪演變為金融危機的風險已經大幅減退。經歷了前所未有的低迷之後，在非常寬鬆的貨幣和財政政策支持，以及全球經濟活動將逐步恢復的前景推動下，預計下半年歐元區經濟將反彈。但是這種恢復的速度和規模是極其不確定的。
自歐盟復蘇基金的好消息傳出以來，以歐元計價的風險資產的交易更為強勁，儘管救助計畫的規模不是“很驚人”，但它肯定是歐洲政策和經濟增長朝正確方向邁出的一步，從本質上說，歐盟“解體”的風險溢價現在已經明顯降低，可能在中期支撐歐元。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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