避險情緒下降，英鎊或有巨大發轉
關鍵字：英鎊或有巨大反轉
英鎊兌美元在下跌後出現明顯轉漲，但由於冒險情緒的升溫，市場對英歐下一輪的談判抱有樂觀的憧憬，也支撐了英鎊的反彈，加上市場預計英國央行將擴大資產購買，若央行沒有加強負利率預期，英鎊將出現明顯反彈。
上周英國央行行長貝利表示，隨著經濟從新冠疫情中逐步復蘇，英國央行準備推出更多刺激措施。貝利週五在接受訪時表示，“我們準備採取行動了嗎？是的。我們必須為此做好準備，因為我們仍然深陷其中。”
未來一周英鎊波動將加大，除市場普遍風險情緒外，英國脫歐談判和英國央行貨幣政策料影響英鎊表現。雖然近期全球投資者風險情緒有所改善，但英鎊仍然是G10貨幣中表現最差的，但料反轉上個月的頹勢。
由於英國央行決定審查包括負利率在內的政策選擇，以及英國脫歐貿易談判缺乏進展，英鎊維持疲弱，這兩個因素打壓英鎊，因此未來一周可能對英鎊表現至關重要，英國經濟事件風險很大，英鎊波動將加大。
英國央行會議前，4月英國GDP月率錄得創紀錄降幅-20.4%，加大該央行進一步放鬆銀根的預期，目前預期英國央行將進一步擴大資產購買規模，而目前的2000億英鎊購債計畫將要耗盡。英鎊前景可能更多地取決於英國央行對負利率的最新看法，如果未加強負利率預期，英鎊將反彈。
本周英國央行將會公佈價值1000億英鎊的進一步量化寬鬆(QE)方案，同時還會保留進一步寬鬆的空間，但不會公佈具體的更多細節，甚至可能不會提及。我們猜測更多的寬鬆方案將會是負利率或是收益率曲線控制措施。外匯市場中，近期英鎊前景不太穩定，依然對於風險情緒具有高度的敏感性。英鎊同時也會受益於更大的經濟刺激方案，但如果出現失望的局面，英鎊則將承受壓力。在這樣的情況下，投資情緒將會決定未來任何走向的幅度。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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