中美貿易戰無法帶動美元多頭
本周美元指數處於劣勢，正在逐步下調，當前市場對於中美貿易戰的升級的憂慮有所緩和，同時對於風險資產的偏好持續熱絡。美元正在逐步喪失避險屬性的優勢，當前向上動能仿佛已經全部耗盡。
實際上本周截止目前美元指數未能成功獲得上行動能，雖然本周中國和美國互相徵收新一輪貿易關稅，但與此前幾輪不同的是，本次貿易緊張局勢升級未能提振美元。
一季度中大量構築美元投機性淨空頭頭寸，以至於二季度，由於利差的原因，這部分空頭頭寸則被“狠狠地”逼空，持續利好美元多頭的走勢。
同時由於特朗普大肆追求其理想的美國貿易關係，市場將目光轉至了全球貿易緊張局勢和對全球經濟增長預期的下調，即便美國經濟仍揚帆遠航。
通常當某一央行打算提高利率時，往往是該國貨幣的看漲信號。但當前的美元恐怕無福消受這一利好，有分析人士指出，對下周美聯儲的加息預期，可能正閃爍著賣出美元的信號。
分析師表示，在未來6-9個月內，美元兌一籃子貨幣可能會暴跌10%。美元目前處於階段峰值，未來6-9個月歐元兌美元可能從週三的約1.17關口升至1.25關口，這也是做空美元兌日元的良機。
基於聯邦基金期貨，市場當前認為美聯儲下周加息25個基點幾乎是肯定的。週三的合約顯示，到2018年底，市場定價的加息幅度將超過45個基點；投資者的注意力甚至已經越來越多地轉向明年的加息前景，美聯儲此前設定的2019年加息三次的路徑似乎也愈發得到市場認同。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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