王垣鑫:纪要加强升息预期,为金价带来强劲压力
本周金价短暂反弹测试1850一线位置后承压大幅回落,短短两天时间内价格回落幅度超过50美元,重新回到1800整数关口下方区间内。随后受美国感恩节影响,昨日市场交投较为平淡,全天时间内金价基本保持6美元空间窄幅震荡整理,目前整体走势表现非常疲弱。
欧央行公布会议纪要
欧洲央行会议纪要显示,通胀预期将进一步上升,然后在2022年下降。有人暗示,通胀前景不确定,应当保持开放立场。一些反映市场对短期货币市场利率未来路径预期的指标很难与欧洲央行的政策利率前瞻指引相协调。短期利率的上升可能是由于“认为通胀风险上升”。一些投资者“可能也更加看重加息条件会更早满足的可能性”。普遍认为工资增长放缓。有委员认为紧急抗疫购债计划(PEPP)净购买应在2022年3月前结束。重要的是,管委会应当为未来的货币政策行动保留充分的选项,包括12月会议以后。
美联储公布会议纪要
美联储会议纪要:美联储工作人员们上修了对美国通胀的预期。许多官员看到,有证据表明通胀顽固地偏高。与会者们在11月FOMC货币政策会议上判断,物价回落恐将需要更长时间。部分与会者称,加速Taper(减码QE)可能是有保障的,他们强调Taper的速度要有灵活性。多名与会者认为,美联储可能需要提前加息。
目前价格低位反弹已经到达日线级别的MA5均线压力位置附近,目前MACD指标双线保持死叉下行状态,不过KDJ指标走低有调整的需求,金价能否在短时间内进一步延续下跌趋势需要关注MA5均线的压力是否有效,因为日内均线压力与近两天价格反弹滞高点位置基本相符,一旦突破均线压制将可视为阶段性反弹调整开启的信号。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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