王垣鑫：CPI月率增幅创纪录，现货黄金剧烈震荡
本周金价大部分时间维持1880-1900区间震荡波动幅度较小，整体基本保持在1890一线上下波动，多空双方在这个位置不断争夺。昨日金价在亚盘开盘后持续走低，在美盘时段价格到达日内最低位1870一线，随后价格迅速反弹短时间内直接飙升21美元，截止目前为止反弹走势仍在持续，价格再度测试1900整数关口。
欧洲下半年经济活动或将加速
欧洲央行行长拉加德预计下半年经济活动将加速，但供应瓶颈可能在短期内造成不利影响；下半年通胀预期将上升，随着暂时性因素逐渐消失，通胀率将随之下降，总体通胀率低于预期水平。市场利率上升部分反映了更好的经济，但持续上升可能导致过早的紧缩，欧洲央行将对汇率进行监控。拉加德称显著加快购债步伐的决定是一致通过的，且在适当的时候会有关于退出紧急抗疫购债计划的讨论，不过现在还为时过早。
美国5月CPI数据增幅大超预期
随着经济增强，预计通胀持续走高的风险将变得更加稳固。季调后CPI月率录得0.8%，为2009年以来最大增幅，年率录得5%，为2008年8月以来最大增幅，不过年率受到基数效应的影响。随着企业在需求激增和材料短缺、劳动力短缺等方面取得平衡，整个经济体的价格压力料将继续增加。航运瓶颈、投入成本上升和工资上涨，都将给保护利润率的企业带来挑战。
从日线级别上可以看到，昨日金价日内虽然出现大幅走低行情，但最终收盘时价格仍然回到1890上方，虽然MACD指标双线持续死叉，但空头迟迟未能向下取得突破，价格下行的空间难以打开，目前金价再度向上测试，需留意1900整数关口的反压情况。日内金价目前再度冲击1900关口，虽然KDJ指标三线目前走高指标有调整需求，但若后市价格能站稳1890一线位置，未来价格再度走上1900关口上方的概率或将大大增加。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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