熊傲君:美联储利率决议即将登场,本周重头戏正式上演
关键字:美联储利率决议,黄金价格走势
导语:由于周初的整体市场基本面比较平淡,所以实际上整个汇市的走势都不算太过于剧烈,而黄金方面同样失去了进一步上攻的动力,近期再次有所承压而回落。虽然幅度不算太大,但是多头的势能已经被减弱,另外美国经济数据的强劲表现也导致美债收益率回升,让黄金吸引了下降,所以今晚的美联储决议将会是后市方向和节奏的关键。
市场不断施压美联储
在经济不断复苏的情况下,其实市场已经多次对美联储施压,认为其需要更快地调整货币政策,进行减码的措施,只不过都被后续的美联储官员纷纷反对,并且继续对市场释放信心。近期的经济数据继续保持强劲,已经导致通胀有着过快上升的风险,所以本次针对货币政策调整的可能,将是一大看点。
在3月会议上,美联储官员暗示愿意容忍市场参与者的经济乐观情绪增强而导致的市场利率温和反弹。美联储高级官员此前不断安抚人心的表态。他们不仅淡化了即将出现的通胀上升的意义,而且暗示无需担心金融稳定的风险。因此,也不排除本次会议不会有暗示政策将发生变化的前瞻指引,但这是对于金价利好的消息。
众多重磅数据也要登场
除了要关注好今晚凌晨的美联储利率决议之外,由明天开始,美国市场也会公布一系列的重磅经济数据,所以虽然本周周初的行情不算太大,但是好戏还在后头,接下来的三个交易日可能才是真正迎来较大的行情。首先第一季度的GDP将首次公布,这对于目前美国经济增长是一个直接的反映指标,重要程度不必多言。
另外,像PCE物价指数也是很有影响力的指标,市场预计3月份的个人收入和支出均激增,因为上半年美国经济两轮庞大收入浪潮中的第一波,第二波是3月份的1.9万亿美元纾困计划的实施而到来,规模大约是1月份的两倍。这意味着美国的通胀水平极有可能再次出现上升,让市场忧虑程度升温。
黄金目前无法突破1800大关,并且出现一定的高位回落,一方面在于市场基本面没有继续给出更大的支撑,另一方面美债收益率重新走高,都打压了黄金的吸引力。因此,如果美联储利率决议能够及时送上东风,那么黄金才有机会重燃多头的力量,并再次向1800上方进发。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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