熊傲君:黄金短期或仍无力打开上方空间
尽管近段时间的黄金价格出现了不错的反弹势头,但不难发现到目前为止还是没能够进一步打开上方的空间,比如本周就持续承压在1950一线的反压后开始加速回落、可见,短期的多空方向争夺依然没有明显的胜负,所以空间也不适宜看得过大,需要等待美联储九月份的利率决议公布之后再去观察后市加息的线索,只有真正停止紧缩的周期,黄金才有机会再度冲击2000大关。
美国经济数据依然强劲
九月份的非农数据虽然在失业率的数字上有所回升,但整体美国劳动力市场的情况还是比较可观,再加上多份经济数据显示美国的经济处于强劲的地带,所以并没有太大的经济衰退风险,就算明年开始GDP增速会回来,但软着陆的希望已经非常高。因此,这使得近期的美元指数以及美债收益率始终处于高位,让黄金价格的多头能量无法进一步释放,此消彼长之下反而重新回落。
美联储加息与否尚有悬念
实际上自进入2023下半年以来,黄金价格的走势整体其实就是震荡回调为主,但下方的支撑力度也非常强大,所以就算处于加息的背景下,黄金的下行空间也越来越有限了,不过要想梦回年初的多头行情,那还是得等美联储最终的加息步伐。假如美联储正式宣告加息政策,那么金价将会迎来春天,相反如果美联储年内再度加息一次的话,则估计大家还需等待一段时间。
对于黄金的上涨前景相信大部分的投资者还是较为乐观,不过在交易过程中还是要区分好短线还是长线的思路,毕竟黄金的行情活跃波动还是极为激烈,因此在短期上行空间相对有限的情况下,大家还是不能盲目看好上涨盈利的幅度,而且尽量要搭配限价平台做好严格的风控保护,才能找到更好的收获机会。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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